When it comes to Iran’s nuclear threat, the powers that be always conjure up worst-case scenarios. ‘But the underlying assumptions need to be questioned more thoroughly. Why would a nuclear Iran necessarily set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East? The conventional wisdom is that the Sunni Arab powers fear the power of Shiite Persia, and would immediately reach for their own bomb should Iran produce one.’
When it comes to Iran’s nuclear threat, the corollary thinking always rests on Israel’s nuclear threat. After all, Israel does have a nuclear arsenal. ‘Why is it assumed that Iran would not be deterred by Israel’s nuclear strength? Because it is thought that ‘Iranians are fanatics and wouldn’t hesitate to commit national suicide if it could get at Israel’s throat.’
When it comes to Iran’s nuclear threat, there is always the fear that it might give a nuclear bomb to its alleged terrorist group, the Hezbollah. ‘And why do we think Iran would give a bomb to terrorists if it had one? Nations sometimes use terrorists for their purposes, although they call them freedom fighters. But why would Iran give Hezbollah an atomic bomb’ when armed groups are ‘too undisciplined.’
For all we know, Iran may just be building its nuclear arsenal for deterrence purposes. With Russia aiding Iran in building such, this just might be a hangover of the old Cold War. Maybe, the Cold War did not really end. Maybe, Russia backing Iran and the US backing Israel is Cold War being waged on proxy.
Nonetheless, history shows us that deterrence did work during the real Cold War. It might just as well work now.
Via boston.com
