Realists claim that the Copenhagen Climate Conference or the COP15 UN Climate Change Conference 2009 will fail in its intended agenda, and that no climate deals will be forged between December 7 and 18 of 2009. Months before the climate summit, it had already been clear that climate negotiations will hit a standoff. ‘The rest of the world has been asking, ‘Why should we go ahead with this when the richest emitter hasn’t stepped up to the plate?”’

Developing countries are also ‘demanding that wealthy nations cough up about $100 billion a year to help them switch from fossil fuels like coal to energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide, such as wind and solar. China and India (the largest and fifth-largest greenhouse-gas emitters) refuse to even consider abiding by any globally agreed reductions, arguing that their per capita emissions remain a tiny fraction of America’s.’ This becomes utter concern as ‘developing countries, led by China and India, pose the greatest threat over the next few decades.’

Based on current trends, countries want to ‘determine what greenhouse cuts they’re willing to make on their own.’ What we will see are respective national goals on greenhouse cuts announced by different countries, creating a very positive climate, but no international official agreements yet on reduction quantity levels.

The 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference will serve as testing ground for future talks, at best. The real talks might occur by the end of next year. This just might augur well for real, doable, and pragmatic climate deals. ‘Postponing serious negotiations to 2010 will also buy time to incorporate into a treaty innovative, and potentially cheaper, ways to cut greenhouse gases’ and ways of ‘restoring grazing lands that have been chomped bare,’ sucking up ‘billions of tons of carbon (8.5 billion tons are being emitted each year).’

While ‘the 192 countries flocking to Copenhagen won’t reach consensus on climate change,’ that also ‘ won’t stop them from acting alone.’

Via Newsweek