The method used in estimating the proportion of people who will die if infected with the swine flu virus is inherently flawed, according to UK researchers. The present death rate estimate used in the UK and the US is 0.5 percent or that for every 1000 people infected, about 5 of them will die from the infection. There are reasons why this method of estimating swine flu infection death rate may produce inaccurate results.
There are no known and certain statistical figures as to the number of infected people who recover on their own without the knowledge of doctors and health personnel regarding their condition. For health authorities to ascertain the ‘case-fatality ratio’ which is ‘calculated by dividing the number of fatal cases by the total number of cases,’ they need to know beyond the numbers of swine flu deaths in hospitals. They also need to know the ‘hidden infections’ to know the proportion of all cases that are life threatening.
Some swine flu deaths are erroneously categorized as deaths from other causes such as pneumonia, making the real figures underestimated.
There is a lapse of time between the infection and the point of death that may bring an ‘apparent surge in deaths which may falsely be interpreted as the virus becoming more deadly through mutation.’
Given these possibilities for estimate error, it can be concluded that there is no accurate method to calculate swine flu casualty rate, much less to interpret the developments of the epidemic and extrapolate its course. An accurate estimate method is imperative so that health authorities can effectively strategize treatment and prevention through vaccination.
Via NewScientist
