More rain, less murders in New York

An analysis by the New York Times about the rain and the murders in the last six years shows that when it rains substantially in the summer, there are fewer murders. The average homicide that is 17 days to ten, drops to 14 murders in ten days.

This is not surprising for Vernon J. Geberth, a former captain of a team of research of homicides in the neighborhood of the Bronx. He says that when it rains heavy, the police sometimes made the following joke: “The best cop in the world is working tonight.”

The difference is even greater when considering only the “Saturdays” of summer. These are the occasions on which records the highest number of homicides during the year.

But, when there isn’t rain, the average number of homicides for each sequence of ten Saturdays in summer rises to 24. But for each sequence of ten Saturday with at least one inch of rain, the average number of killings fell to 18.

These numbers may be good news for the city since this summer in New York began with the second highest rate of rainfall recorded in one month since June, according to meteorologists at the University of the State of Pennsylvania.

With little more than 200 murders occurred so far this year, the city is about to record the lowest annual number of murders since the beginning of the sixties. In the first days of July may rain every day.

Via NYT.

20081115 928b More rain, less murders in New York

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