Experts believe that, with the ongoing military offensive by Pakistani armed forces against Al-Qaeda’s trusted allies, the Taliban, Osama Bin Laden might be looking for another safe haven for his militia. With the current military operations by Pakistan in its Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), many are speculating that Yemen or Somalia might be the next destination for Al-Qaeda. However, analysts disagree with this conclusion that Osama would jeopardize his own safety and that of his men by making a move for either of these countries. Intelligence agencies have an eye on them, due to the recent increased Al-Qaeda presence in the regions. One of the primary regions for Al-Qaeda not establishing itself in Yemen or Somalia, is that both these countries are known to harbor terrorists and are under the watchful eye of the United States. Secondly, U.S on previous occasions had launched cruise missile strikes at terrorist targets and would do so again, if it finds high-level members of Al-Qaeda in either of these countries.

With the continued offensive against the Taliban in the Swat valley and other regions by Pakistan along with U.S drone attacks, Al Qaeda is cornered and might be looking for a place to continue its anti-western campaigns in relative safety. However, many believe that it would be quite risky for Osama to bring his men into the open, where there is 24 hours satellite and drone reconnaissance and an immediate threat of death, by a ‘smart-bomb’. Also, the people residing in these areas are quite disgruntled with Taliban’s injustices and their loyalties are largely uncertain.

According to Thomas Hegghammer (Harvard University),

“The moment that al Qaeda has to leave the FATA, that is the end of al Qaeda as an organization.”

But, it does not mean that Osama wouldn’t try to relocate, but it would be very hard for him to find a suitable ‘friendly nation’.

Yemen and Somalia have see their own share of deadly terror attacks and would be quite reluctant in giving safe haven to Al Qaeda. This week itself, the Islamist militants that are considered to have affiliations with Al Qaeda assassinated Somalian Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden in one of the most devastating suicide bomb attacks in the history of the country.

Many experts still believe that, Osama Bin Laden would not leave the relative comforts of the FATA, as it has been the home to Al-Qaeda for years, with trusted allies, sufficient arsenal of weapons and the region is largely ungoverned, giving Al Qaeda a lot freedom to carry out its activities.

Via Reuters.