In Russia, domestic economic health is not synonymous with national power. The country has always had a dysfunctional economy. ‘By contrast, its military power has always been disproportionately strong.’

The Russian security machinery devoted a bigger chunk of its economy to military power. The Russian government has been able to do this ‘Moscow could control its population successfully. It could impose far greater austerities than other countries could. Therefore, Russia was a major power in spite of its economic weakness. And this gave it room to maneuver in an unexpected way.’

When this security machinery ‘loosened its grip to facilitate openness and restructuring, the empire’s underlying tensions quickly went on display. When unrest in East Germany threatened to undermine Soviet control, Gorbachev had to make a strategic decision. If he used military force to suppress the uprising, probably restructuring and certainly openness would be dead, and the crisis Andropov foresaw would be upon him.’

But Gorbachev ‘accepted retreat from East Germany to maintain and strengthen his economic relations with the West.’ The rest followed and history was made. ‘If Germany were not to be defended, what would be defended? Applying his strategy rigorously, Gorbachev allowed the unwinding of the Eastern European empire without intervention. The decision he had made about Germany amounted to relinquishing most of Moscow’s World War II gains. But if regime survival required it, the price had to be paid.’

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Via STRATFOR