Vladimir Putin has been in a leadership office at the Kremlin for 10 years, having a direct hand in transforming Russia ‘from the unstable but semidemocratic days of the 1990s to the statist, authoritarian structure of today.’ In more operational terms, that means carrying the country ‘from tentative democracy to near-police state.’ Putin couldn’t have helped it. Russia’s geopolitical fate, borne of its size and lack of geographically defined borders, is sealed to be authoritarian.

For starters, Russia is a huge geographical mass, spanning 11 time zones. The country’s geographic quandary dooms it to poverty. ‘The Russian steppe lies deep in the interior of the Eurasian landmass, and as such is subject to climatic conditions much more hostile to human habitation and agriculture than is the American Midwest. Even in those blessed good years when crops are abundant in Russia, it has no river network to allow for easy transport of products.’

Transport of goods, the backbone of income-generating trade and commerce, is a tough challenge in Russia. ‘Russia has no good warm-water ports to facilitate international trade (and has spent much of its history seeking access to one). Russia does have long rivers, but they are not interconnected as the Mississippi is with its tributaries, instead flowing north to the Arctic Ocean, which can support no more than a token population.’

Since the geography of Russia offers various weaknesses, in terms of massive size and lack of geographically defined borders that makes security a daunting challenge and expensive effort, the state has responded with institutionalized terror to steer it to some semblance of economic development. ‘Russia’s first real wave of development and industrialization did not occur until Stalin rose to power.’

Enter Putin, a non- bureaucrat, non-technocrat, and non-politico. He was a KGB agent. He fit the bill. He was exactly what Russia needed to fulfill its geopolitical fate of authoritarian rule.

Unfortunately, intelligence officers do not necessarily have the acumen to steer people out of poverty. They can ward off enemies at the gate or rule with an iron hand, but they cannot address the overwhelming economic dilemma. Thus, Russia is still languishing in economic inefficiency, with a situation that ‘has only gotten worse since Soviet times.

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Via STRATFOR