Since last spring (Northern Hemisphere) at which the swine influenza sweeping Mexico and initiated the first pandemic of the world in 40 years, medical experts emphasized the unpredictability of influenza virus. The manifestos demanded of them have been: wait for the “unexpected”.

So far, however, the new H1N1 virus has more or less followed the route that epidemiologists wrote to it three months ago. The virus has been to the default normal seasonal flu, so that the current outbreaks are more intense in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is winter.

If the virus becomes more aggressive is less certain. There is a belief that pandemics stringent are preceded by a ” precursory ” wave kindest of disease. If that is the case, the prospect is bleak.

As with all epidemics, people with more reasons to worry about are those who live in the developing world, and more needy residents of the industrialized world. Here already exist some signs of an impending tragedy.

In spite of some few people without other problems of health have died from influenza H1N1, the deads consist mainly consists mainly of patients carrying other disease or factors that weaken the immune system, such as obesity and pregnancy.

But it is clear no matter how unexpected the influenza can be and whatever the gravity of this pandemic, the number of victims in the coming months will be much larger proportionally between the poorest of the world.

Via: Financial Times.